Bob Loukas

Your Training is Complete

🇬🇧 EN🇪🇸 ES
40:39 min youtube 2020 Semana 47 🇪🇸 ES
Transcripción completa
[00:02] hello four-year journey members it's bob lucas here on thursday november 19 2020. i hope you're doing well this is another version of the four-year journey it's been a couple of months since the last video so it's been a decent gap and obviously a lot has changed and we're going to get into that in this video i know many of you are very excited i think this has been encouraging at least and i'm going to talk about that today's video obviously we're going to go over where we stand in a four year cycle video where we've come in the last couple of
[00:34] years where i see us potentially going so we'll look at some charts in some detail i'll go over the model portfolio and talk about some possible trades in the future where i'm looking at maybe getting out and so on and then i'll actually spend quite a bit of time just sort of in free free thought free talk about what i think is coming up in 2021 and and some of the emotions we're going to be feeling some of the um tools that we're going to need to
[01:04] implement to take advantage of what i think what hopefully is going to happen here in bitcoin over the next 12 to 24 months a lot of this is content i've already covered i've done around 10 or so videos it is very difficult to come up with you know brand new content so a lot of it's just going to be rehashing of content i've provided in the past but i think it's going to be much more tailored to where we are in this cycle and much more relevant to you
[01:34] for where we are in the cycle so a lot to get through let's get into it so it's time to celebrate right bitcoin hit eighteen thousand dollars just a month or two ago it was at ten or twelve thousand dollars and people were talking about it going back down below 9 000 still had plenty of torque of 5 000 4 000 3000 you know the the same old crew calls but here we are at 18 000 i really
[02:06] hope that most of you at least who have been following along had this well and truly in their plans right and expected now i understand bitcoin seems to go up by a thousand dollars every three to five days of late and it has and it's in somewhat of a mini little blow-off move and i'm going to cover that shortly but it's important here to realize that it's not time to celebrate um you have successfully if you're still holding all of your bitcoin
[02:36] uh really gone through the accumulation phase and taking advantage of the accumulation phase and now you're seeing a position 3x maybe even as close as 4x up which is great right it's from a from a compounding standpoint if we're looking at bitcoin getting over a hundred thousand in the future this three to four x makes a big deal okay there's gonna be a lot of people who are gonna get into bitcoin who are just starting to get into bitcoin and we see celebrities on twitter
[03:06] talking about should i get into bitcoin of course they come out of the woodwork when it's at 18 000 right we knew they would they're all going to start getting in between 18 and 30 000 especially when we hit the all-time high number so yes it's um it's time to celebrate only from a standpoint that you've done a good job to this point in holding even though you know you've been worried about a pullback and it's important now to realize that our pullback is probably going to come at some point now it may not happen
[03:37] until we hit an all-time high and then pull back but there's going to be a pull back there's going to be a sharp pull back at some point there's going to be a consolidation at some point there's going to be months of sideways grind perhaps as well there are multiple situations that we need to be prepared for like we've been this entire time don't forget when i first published my four-year cycle video two years ago now almost in december of 18 we were in the depths of the bear market the final decline bitcoin was down 85 percent um
[04:10] at my recording it was at the depths of that bull market right and it took a lot of courage for a lot of us here to get in at bitcoin at that level everyone was talking about essentially the death of bitcoin or going down to you know to single uh you know down below the 1000 level you know there's hyper wave there was uh all these uh elliott wave uh predictions of of triple digit you know like 700 800 bitcoin there was everybody was bearish right so
[04:40] it took a lot of conviction to be able to say no you know this is a cycle that's coming to an end and it's time to get in and since then right we've seen you know i've done multiple videos we've seen multiple rallies we've seen shakeouts we've seen sell-offs we've seen capitulations you know in in the bitcoin space we've seen hacks we've seen government correct crackdowns we've seen you know more regulation we've you know we've talked about or everyone's thought about minor capitulations that didn't happen
[05:11] and here we are two years later from that point and bitcoin is up 300 350 and 18 000 and none of that in the end really mattered it didn't really matter that we had these shakeoffs and capitulations and hacks because the cycle dictated and the destiny for bitcoin was already there that was all noise that was all they were all narratives of people to either sell or
[05:43] buy at certain times based on where the path of least resistance was in bitcoin at the time right but here we are today at 18 000 and all that is history all that is history all those events of history the only thing that has changed is time and blocks okay and bitcoin right bitcoin is about a consistent clock in terms of its blocks okay
[06:13] and that's what's changed it's been time okay time for um you know the rebirth to take shape from that bear market low time for new accumulation to develop and time for bitcoin to gain more trust okay because bitcoin is the soundness of money whether you know i don't think there's an argument from a from a technical from a financial from a fundamental standpoint bitcoin is vastly superior to everything else that's out there
[06:43] nothing comes close and everybody knows this even traditionalists even the gold bugs right we know i'm a gold bug for for decades and i still hold a lot of gold i love gold but i know bitcoin is superior in every way except bitcoin lacks the trust now many of you who are let's call them bitcoin maximalists who have been around for a while in this space your trust is unwavering i do know that
[07:13] but from a broader sense from a from a massive capital perspective trust is the issue with bitcoin okay can they trust it it's new it's technology it's not something tangible that they can touch and where there's a lack of trust or where there's not enough trust there's not going to be enough value placed on the network and on the bitcoin okay so what's happened here over the last few years is that the time perspective
[07:46] has created more trust and more trust equals value and this is what we're seeing over these four year cycles four year cycles okay the halving is important but that's only a financial perspective that's just a supply side thing where the value comes from is in trust and as time progresses as each block gets minted and circulated around the network trust gets developed and as trust gets the price goes up okay so we've seen price go up
[08:16] consistently over the last two or two years but with of course massive shakeouts and rallies in between but since the genesis block we've seen the same progression as time progress time progresses price goes up in the shorter time frames in in between four year cycles we get massive volatility you have to remove that massive volatility from a hotless perspective from a long-term perspective and ignore the fact that you get 80 swings in bitcoin over or during a
[08:49] four-year cycle and focus on the fact that block after block after block it continues to get minted and the more blocks that we produce the more trust you're going to get and this is the reason why during this last four year cycle compared to the prior four-year cycle where it was mostly uh techies and digital folks and even young millennials mostly the retail crowd who is part of this ico boom that drove bitcoin higher
[09:19] yes of course there was institutional involvement and there was you know deep pocketed people involved but let's face it it wasn't widespread and it wasn't institutional based in this four year cycle based on the groundbreaking work that was done in 16 and 17 and so on we now have the foundations for the institutional onboarding and that's been occurring ever since and that's been covered in my videos in the past
[09:50] that we have an accumulation that has been ongoing now for the past year or so and it's finally given way there is just not enough supply in this market the had run dry and this is why you're not seeing a massive funding uh increase in the perpetual swap so in the futures markets you're not seeing that because this is a spot driven rally this is a this is a supply problem but also a demand issue we've
[10:20] had significant demand and larger size demand coming obviously there's been talk about uh you know microstrategy and square buying for sort of their treasury asset positions we have we have billionaires coming out saying they're buying five and ten percent of this but we also have traditional hedge fund managers paul tudor jones for example and others saying that this could be the next big thing raul paul from real vision although he's been
[10:50] involved for years in the past but you can clearly see the level of involvement now is much broader it's deeper and it's becoming real right i don't see people saying bitcoin's a silly kid bubble anymore serious people with history of trading and experience are now calling bitcoin the real thing okay even ray dalio the other day basically
[11:20] said well maybe i'm mistaken about this this is his first way of saying i'm wrong by the way okay he won't say it out front but now he's kind of hedging his his opinion in the past and saying well maybe there was something i didn't know about this you know something that's um different than i thought chase bank citibank i mean look it's endless right this is just where we are in the cycle where this is where we are in the evolution of bitcoin and it's important to know that this next four year cycle that this next
[11:50] year or two is gonna basically realize that value okay it's going to unlock the value now that the accumulation has occurred and it's mostly over the supply is low the supply is going to stay low of course for the next two and a half to three years and we'll get less again but it's a cyclical market it's a cyclical nature of this and we're on the cusp here of all-time highs and all-time highs unlocks the next level in the four-year cycle we're just now
[12:20] crossing or about to cross next month the halfway point of the cycle and you know the first couple of years are about accumulation the third year is generally about the blow-off and the fourth years about the bear market and that's where we are at the moment this is a segway now into the chart okay this is the weekly i don't want to focus much on the weekly this is not supposed to be a short-term timing service or a video but i want to cover something pretty important i believe as you can see since the march capitulation lows
[12:52] this ended this mini bear market from the june uh 2019 highs so we had this massive surge early in the four-year cycle that took a lot of people by surprise and as a result we needed to revert back to the mean because we moved well way too quickly through that process okay so we needed to revert back to the mean in a bear market this here looked as if this ended the um the decline it did not of course because we had the
[13:23] capitulation with the coronavirus event and here we are rebuilding this is the move back to the mean this is the accumulation phase and this is the point more recently where there's just not enough supply anymore the accumulation has gobbled up what remaining supply there was nobody wants to sell at this level and they have got new price discovery all the way up to the 18 000 level i don't know where this little move ends but to me this is a mini blow-off move for this cycle for this this this period in here i believe the
[13:54] march lows to wherever we end up here will end a cycle and this here will then move back lower it could make an all-time high hopefully it does we don't know it could double top at that point it's really irrelevant to this video but you know we're coming to an end at this point and i think what's going to happen at that point is that we may need to consolidate we're going to look for 30 declines at some point if i go and look for the last 30 decline it was here
[14:26] in obviously the coronavirus decline did you know that this is now the longest period at around about 36 weeks between 30 declines if you go back over the 11-year history of bitcoin's price you will never find a period this long between 30 declines people think that we're not going to see another 30 decline but we will we absolutely will and in prior bull markets as you can see
[14:57] from here this is the longest or was the longest period between 30 declines has now been eclipsed by this current one but as you can see even during this period which is pretty similar to where we are now we had 30 declines 30 declines 30 30 we had i think this one may have been as well we had plenty of 30 declines and we also had 30 declines in the past so be warned you will get a shakeout you will get 30 declines and even a 30 decline
[15:29] from where we stand today okay again i'm not saying we're getting one right here but a 30 decline from just today for example is getting us back to twelve thousand nine hundred it's a five thousand five hundred dollar decline it's going to come at some point does it come from here does it come from the twenty one thousand dollar level does it come from the twenty five thousand 000 level i just don't know point is be aware of that and then when i switch out to
[15:59] the monthly chart um excuse me about that when i switch out to the monthly chart okay picture perfect right now i'm using the closing basis here from the 2017-18 top but from a closing basis we're clearly on the way now we have the 10-month moving average starting to really slope higher similar to the prior four-year cycle when it broke out we had
[16:30] the accumulation phase and here we are right now in a similar manner but as you can see this is as clean as it gets we had a surprise surge here now we have this cup pattern here we had the capitulation that shook so many people out especially all the leveraged traders so much of that leverage position got really thrown out with this and that set the scene for what we're seeing right now but from a four-year cycle standpoint right let's go back and look at the original four-year cycle
[17:00] chart from two years ago and also from 16 or 18 months ago so here's the the video from april of uh 2019 this is the four this is the one where the video where i basically said the four year cycle's on right we've got confirmation that it's and i'm talking here about sort of just just as a guy what it might look like and we're talking here about the first kind of touch at all-time highs in november of 2020 which is out where we
[17:30] are right now so yes we've probably come a little steeper than maybe i thought and obviously right here i don't show that big surge but uh the point really is that just like in prior cycles it takes a while to build the base and you know this is when price was at four thousand so we've built this base and then we start to get up towards twenty thousand but here what i'm trying to illustrate what i think is important is that once we get to that all-time high level that we need to probably pull back or we
[18:00] probably will pull back and i think it's going to be more important even today because we haven't seen much of a pullback let's go to the weekly uh here's the weekly we haven't seen a pullback yet so we've already just shot out from this 12 000 11 500 12 000 area which is why i think yes we can easily test or exceed the all-time highs which is only you know what is it nineteen six it's only one and a half thousand dollars it
[18:30] can do that tomorrow uh potentially or next week but my point is that i think we're gonna double top or maybe slightly exceed or exceed by a thousand or so dollars and then what we need to likely see let's go to the monthly here is so here's let's just call it let's make it up to the wick so we're going to get up to this point and i think what we need to see and i've always talked about not breaking cleanly at least through the all-time high levels until april of 2021. that's where
[19:02] i've always shown in previous videos i think we you know we break so let's just say we get up that point i think we can spend the next and this is a monthly chart right so i think we can spend the next few months forming a flag here before making that run up to where we get to a top in either late 2022 or a top in early sorry late 2021 or early 2022. i'll take either or i don't know for
[19:32] sure where a top occurs in the cycle is very difficult to predict when i'm focused more on is the next cycle low in the end of 2022 that's where i think um you know that's that's what i'm more focused on where the top occurs is difficult to say and at what price that's irrelevant for now we'll cross that bridge when time comes but my point here is that this has been a great run and we've come off really what 3 800 in march this year um and even from
[20:02] the 6 000 level we're up significantly and this looks on the shorter intermediate time frame to be more of a blow-off move you see the separation a 10-month moving average you see the separation here in the 10-week moving average all indications are that we need to pull back but it doesn't have to be a crash anything sinister it just means we need to be prepared as hodlers we need to be prepared it means don't try and time it don't try and get cute too many times folks have tried to
[20:36] sidestep a decline and thought well if i sold now at 18 000 and i bought up 14 000 i can get 20 more bitcoin for example yes in theory you could but in theory bitcoin could be at 25 000 next month without a pullback and you have now become an alcoholic right because you can't handle that anymore and then you will buy at 25 000 because um you're drunk no no because you just
[21:06] can't handle it anymore and what's going to happen then is you'll get the 30 decline of course decline when you finally get back in when you can't have where you can't get enough so listen everybody i'm not going to complicate this i'm not going to spend 10 20 half an hour just going over charts for no reason right this is a long play this is a four year cycle and we're at thousand i'm not at least bit surprised i'm not even the least bit excited by this to be honest with you um i don't wanna
[21:36] get excited but i don't need to hold myself back many of you are getting too excited i know that as well but my goal is a hundred thousand minimum okay that's where i'm looking at my goal and i'll get excited then and i'll take some profit for sure and hopefully i'll take much more profit than that maybe we'll get to 150 or 200 i don't know it's irrelevant starting to think when you start to think about how much bitcoin you have versus the price at 100 000 and above and you start to plan what you're going to do with that
[22:07] you're setting yourself up for failure it's difficult to hold massive gains i've told i've told you this before the hardest part of trading is realizing your goals maximizing your potential okay people have no problem holding a loser down to the ground and puking it out but they have a problem holding a winner it's psychological it's it's the fear of losing the money fomo is one thing okay that's obviously but there's also uh
[22:37] there's also the fear of of kind of losing your open profit and some of us here are on 3x and 4x profit already but when we get to 30 or 40 000 we're looking at five 6x profit uh it gets it gets serious right and it becomes serious money to anybody because it's all relative so at 40 and 50 000 dollars it gets really serious and when we get a drop of 20 at the 50 000 range you're talking about a 10 000 decline per bitcoin it becomes
[23:09] vitally important that you are prepared for that because it will happen 100 guarantee it's going to happen and you need to be ready for that so let's get into the model portfolio now and talk about some of the positions and where i may be looking to release the pressure the profit pressure in the future all right so let's take a quick look at the model portfolio we just made three purchases of the last two years of course in the first video i made that 25 btc purchase
[23:41] uh the idea there was to show a hundred thousand dollar portfolio of course for some people it's gonna be ten thousand it's going to be some it's going to be for summer to 1 000. for some it's 1 million or 10 million this is a model based on a hundred thousand dollar allocation we went then then went on to buy five more bitcoin at 9600 that was done in september of 2019 why because at that point in september 19 we were down
[24:11] from a high we were down 43 percent so actually at the 9 000 level we were down around 37 percent the trigger there for me was 30 in the bull market so we had declined 30 percent now it was too early in hindsight okay because we obviously got much lower prices beyond that we even got down to 6500 here which would have been reasonable but the point is in a bull market okay um sensible price sensible purchases
[24:43] still get bailed out in many ways i remember people coming back onto some of my past videos and saying oh look you bought you know you bought high 9 600 well yeah i did i could have got lower of course right and hindsight's always 20 20. but now this position is up almost a hundred percent uh then of course we went on and bought one more position posted in real time here on the channel in march the capitulation on the rebound 4400 another good price the average price
[25:13] here is around about 4 800 for 35 bitcoin the 35 bitcoin for hodlers is up 267 and it's been pretty easy and we now have strong hands because we got in early and we held i doubt many people trying to trade this actively could have outperformed the huddle now question though that most people want to know is where do we sell well the first cell target was moved a long time ago the original one i think was 16 000.
[25:43] when we hit the 14 000 level and came all the way back down to 4000 16 no longer became relevant because if we exceeded let's go here it is here this is the peak thousand fourteen thousand once we got back down i knew that if we exceeded that level and got to sixteen thousand in price which is up in this level that the bull market was back on that this was not a big left translated top let's look at this here on the on the monthly actually
[26:14] here's that peak there was initial concern that we had or could have had a four month peak in the cycle not failed to make a new high and spent the four years or the three and a half years in mostly declining phase so i knew then therefore if we exceeded this level the 16 this 14 01 got to 16 there was no point in selling at 16 because i think we're going off to all-time highs and this is where i see the market today so my first target is 28 000. why am i selling at 28 if i
[26:45] believe it's going to 100 000 or more good question and i am prepared to leave some off the table if i sell five bitcoin at 28 000 why am i doing that well i've got 170 in on this model portfolio if i sell five of that okay i'm only selling five thirty-fifths of the portfolio around fifteen percent of the allocations slightly more i'm selling fifth about 16 of the allocation to get all my money back and then i would have what you call
[27:16] ultimate super hands or you can call it playing with the house's money when you play with the you're not afraid as much of losing it and when you're not afraid of that you're more likely to hold when bitcoin gets to 50 and 60 and 70 and 80 and a hundred thousand dollars per coin the remaining 30 coins that i have i won't have that feeling of hey am i gonna am i gonna let the opportunity go and also lose money
[27:46] in this i know i won't lose money at all no chance by selling my five bitcoin here the rest of it from then on will become discretionary mostly discretionary based on the timing of the cycle so i'm more concerned about topping in either this late 2020 one period so i think by november um and in between say march if by november okay
[28:18] depending on where we are i would be on a heightened alert for a top however i think this four year cycle will end not necessarily on the type of euphoria that we saw right here but on at least a massive kind of blow-off or some type of significant blow-off like move and we're gonna hope to be able to spot that mostly in real time it won't be perfect but i think we'll be able to get something close at least on a trailing stop basis to capture a lot of these gains but
[28:49] if we look it's obviously going to be a great problem to have and nobody's going to catch everything perfectly or right to the top the point is to get there with most of your bitcoin intact in your pocket or in your wallet so you can realize the majority of the gains the goal is to get at least eighty percent of those gains and of course the last 20 are difficult to hold because even as you can see from this last move right these are just monthly candles the last month went from 9 000
[29:19] to 20 000. in the last you know the last 10 000 of that move occurred within a two to three week span so it's not easy i remember trading this and i sold quite a bit of this at the top of this can around 11 to 12 000 thinking that we're very close to a top in hindsight we weren't really that close but was i happy with eleven thousand from buying in at six or seven hundred dollars of course of course i was happy because my expectations were set that way my goal was for a 10x from the prior
[29:51] breakout point so around the 1100 range i was always eyeing the ten to twelve thousand dollar range but i still held some of it and still got some out at nineteen thousand and twenty thousand because i let the trend go and we rode that now hopefully we'll do even better this time around again that's still in the future but we are talking about the model portfolio the goal therefore is to take some off the table first and then just basically monitor the conditions knowing full well that along the way up
[30:23] we're going to see thirty percent declines and again i'd like to say this but a thirty percent decline at the hundred thousand dollar level is a thirty thousand dollar decline we may get a situation in the future where we hit a hundred thousand we decline to seventy thousand we get everybody puked their leverage positions and then we make a run to two hundred as an example that's going to be a possibility we're gonna have to be hyper aware of that it's not going to be easy i can guarantee you when you're sitting on 100
[30:54] 000 bitcoin it's not easy to hold that in the face of a decline like that but these are the types of challenges you need to set yourself up for it's not okay to just dream about how much money you're gonna make you have to dream about how you're gonna handle scenarios and situations in the future because they're gonna come they're already coming they've been hitting us recently we got hit with one here how many of you puked this capitulation in in march with coronavirus how many people thought it was all over
[31:26] okay they happen okay we a lot of people miss this big move up here as well all this happens it's going to happen again in the future we need to be prepared for them so this portfolio page is available all the time on four year journey.com the number four year journey.com you click on model portfolio uh of course all the content all the all of the uh prior videos are here as well but they're obviously here on youtube
[31:57] and if you want to download brave and give some charity to um by downloading brave some bad to charity then that also is welcomed it's very small but it's something okay let's move on now to some simple lessons to end this video so i just want to remind everybody that widen the lens here's the quarterly view this is most of bitcoin's history right here um blx here it is right here all the way
[32:29] from one cent to seventeen thousand dollars this is a secular bull market chart here with cyclical bear markets within four year cycle low declines this is continuing it's continuing we got to 17 000 here without the bitcoin etf remember the etf oh we need an etf this is the only way it's going to go in bollocks we don't need an etf we didn't get an etf okay remember that news and narratives
[33:00] don't matter this is a secular bull market that's based on the discovery of a new monetary solution and technology and the market is beginning to embrace it the market is beginning to understand it and of course as i opened it is a technology that is proven already the supply and inflation schedules are fixed they're proven okay the only thing that bitcoin again has lacked is time in production time to build trust
[33:32] but that changes with each passing day with each month with each year with each month and year that passes trust develops and trust is where value is derived from and this is what you're seeing in this chart here in the beginning days people knew how exciting it was they knew about their technology so they wanted to believe in it they want to hold it and the early hotness that's what huddling is all about holders know that the value represented today in 17 000 is not fair to them
[34:02] it's not a fair value because they understand the power that bitcoin holds for them in the future the market just needs time to realize that and we will get there okay it's just cyclical we have to go through the cyclical waves within that adoption curve i mean nothing has really changed really in the last two years or even this last year but within this last year price has been at four thousand nobody wanted it people were scared it's been at eight thousand and twelve thousands
[34:33] at twelve thousand all within 2020 alone and that most of the time this year people didn't want bitcoin now it's at eighteen thousand and suddenly everybody wants it what the hell it's because humans are simple simple beings they're driven by greed and emotion that's what drives the price of course but they've naturally want to follow and for here the whole point of this video series is not to follow but not necessarily to lead but to lead yourself and to be ahead of
[35:03] the curve to be a contrarian in many ways to understand that deep value here for bitcoin is all entrenched in the time aspect of this and not the short-term price duration traders can focus on short-term time we as huddlers are focusing on bitcoin's technology it's value that's going to be derived over time and we focus on our emotions and the psychology of what a hodler needs to
[35:33] know to get there to get to the other side okay so um you know if people are feeling this way now below all-time highs what the hell is going to happen when bitcoin hits 30 000 or 50 000 or dare i say 100 000 i believe that's going to be coming i've been talking about it coming and i'm not the only one obviously i'm not claiming to be but we've been talking about it for a couple of years now people have been
[36:03] talking about it for eight to ten years okay people have been talking about it since the inception when there wasn't a price hal finley talked about one million dollar bitcoin and being a reserve when there wasn't even a market for it okay so um people have been talking about this for a while and this is where i think bitcoin has so much power people believe you know fundamentally in this product well not in this technology in in bitcoin as money and for that reason with the supply
[36:35] restraints that we see there's only one way over time for those who are patient to uh to to go for bitcoin so 100 000 will come and i think more than 100 000 will come and in future four year cycles whether it's the one to follow this one or the one to follow the other one okay maybe that one million dollar bitcoin will also come that's getting ahead of ourselves but the point is that you don't want to buy rebuy it in the future at those prices you want to be holding from these
[37:06] basement levels and you want to of course maximize the four-year cycle because we want to sell in the four-year cycle top because we want to buy double and triple the amount of bitcoin at the four-year cycle low okay at the bottom i managed to sell a lot eleven thousand twelve thousand and a lot of nineteen and twenty thousand and that allowed me to buy more than i uh you know more than i could have otherwise at that four year cycle lower level and i'm hoping that's what's going to happen in the future for you as well
[37:36] all right so on this journey here it's all been a bit it's all been about going against the herd and focusing on time okay buying your position early being super content with that position okay and allowing us to get into where we are today which is what i call super strong hand position a super strong hand position is when you buy it so low you can afford to not get caught up in the day-to-day and the week-to-week swings in price
[38:08] that we see in bitcoin okay like i said our average price is now 4 800 on these 35 bitcoins it makes it so much easier to hold here but also what makes it easier is knowing that we're not done with this journey we're not done with this until we capture the majority of the gains that have to come in this cycle and they are now on the horizon we have waited this long for those gains we've waited patiently
[38:38] we've gone through again those collapses and and all of everything that's occurred over the last two years at certain times it looked dark and i know you doubted yourself and doubted your position and i'm sure some of you sold some positions and bought back higher and so on those are all lessons you need to take to heart now yes you may have made some mistakes leading up to this point but there are no more mistakes to be made with bitcoin at 18 000. will you get another opportunity at 13 or 14 yes possibly i don't know the point is that nobody
[39:10] knows the point is that we're in this for the four year journey we're in this for the peak and we are getting closer to that peak in many respects both from price and time and there aren't as many uh mistakes that you can make and still come out of this significantly life-changing um you know life-changing results because of that so i want to wrap up this video it's just been off the cuff i'm sorry if it's a
[39:41] little disjointed and all over the place i just want to speak openly and freely and just speak my mind as it comes to me i'm hoping it provides some value to you we're at the point now where i think i've covered most of or everything you need to know in these video series go back over the prior ones listen to some of them listen to how we respond at certain times in the cycle i of course i will provide more videos in the future i don't know when the next one is going to come it may be not until 2021 probably won't be until 2021
[40:13] um but stay healthy stay focused the journeys ahead it's about to get really exciting and if you let that excitement boil over and impact your decision making you're going to regret it for a long time work on it all the best to you thanks for being here if you want to like and share i appreciate it and take care
Resumen de investigación





Four-Year Journey — Resumen ES (Bob Lucas, 19-nov-2020)


Four-Year Journey — Bob Lucas, 19-nov-2020

◆ TL;DR

  • Bitcoin acaba de tocar los 18.000 USD tras subir "a thousand dollars every three to five days of late"; el orador lleva un position 3x-4x en su model portfolio (35 BTC, precio medio ~4.800 USD).
  • "Estamos en el tercer año del ciclo de cuatro años": acumulación prácticamente terminada, oferta escasa, rally spot-driven (no perp-driven); primer sell target en 28.000 USD — vender 5 BTC para recuperar todo el capital y jugar con "house money".
  • Advertencia explícita: el periodo actual lleva ~36 semanas sin un -30% (récord en 11 años de historia); el orador espera un sharp pullback/30% decline en algún momento — "100 guarantee it's going to happen".

▶ El contexto del ciclo


Generado con algoritmo v2.1-anchor-first · modelo MiniMax-M3 · 2026-07-05T00:09:35Z

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